送交者: linux 于 November 03, 2004 03:31:28:[新观察/xgc.merseine.nu]
回答: 预测 由 nwu 于 November 03, 2004 00:14:23:
1. Polls indicates Bush support almost never exceeding 49%, this is very dangerous for an incumbent, since incumbent usually won't get more percentage in votes than in polls.
2. Futures market speaks for Kerry. Oil drops drastically in the last few days. From what I heard, most traders believe if Kerry wins the oil price will drop while if Bush wins it won't drop much.
I predict Kerry will win with a large enough margin to announce himself winner tonight and there won't be many recounts.